Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,447$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,269.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(66,269.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,996$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,700.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,700.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,160$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $412,553$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(9.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,709.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,709.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,924$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,029.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(28,029.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $233,253$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $329,821$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,781.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299,781.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,535$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,546.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,546.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $286,735$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $261,174$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,031.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,031.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,445$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,609.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,609.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,714$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,891$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,840.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,667.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,667.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $81,077$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $285,902$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,005.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(214,005.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,549$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,632.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,632.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $169,596$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,683$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,241.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(54,241.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,233$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,107.2\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,697$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,201$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(9.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(98.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,788.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(25,788.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(642 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,730.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,730.3\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,060$ on 2020-08-25