Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Italy
  • Sweden
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Belarus
  • Denmark
  • Montenegro
  • Armenia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,447$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,269.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(66,269.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,996$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,700.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,700.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,160$ on 2020-08-25

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $412,553$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(9.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,709.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,709.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,924$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,029.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(28,029.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $233,253$ on 2020-08-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $329,821$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,781.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299,781.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,535$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,546.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,546.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $286,735$ on 2020-08-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $261,174$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,031.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,031.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,445$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,609.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,609.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,714$ on 2020-08-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,891$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,840.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,667.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,667.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,077$ on 2020-08-25

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $285,902$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,005.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(214,005.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,549$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,632.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,632.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169,596$ on 2020-08-25

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,683$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,241.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(54,241.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,233$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,107.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,697$ on 2020-08-25

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,201$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(9.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(98.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,788.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(25,788.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(642 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,730.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,730.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,060$ on 2020-08-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 62%
Montenegro recovered 58%
Armenia recovered 54%
Russia recovered 31%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,727$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,642.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 72.9)}}\) (asimptote \(68,642.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $652$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(91.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{682.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(682.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $978$ on 2020-08-25

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,905$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,011.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,011.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $623$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{604.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(604.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,459$ on 2020-08-25

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,444$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(47.5 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,744.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,744.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.909 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 172.7)}}\) (asimptote \(265.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $877$ on 2020-08-25

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,936$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,843.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(43,843.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $858$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(56.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{886.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.5)}}\) (asimptote \(886.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,603$ on 2020-08-25